Another Labor Day approaches! In 2005, it signaled the end of the boom, the bubble popping, the nail hitting the tire or whatever you want to call it. The slowdown began. By March of 2006, two more tires were flat and by Labor Day 2006, just one year after the boom, the tires were off the car! 2006 to 2007 was more of the same! I believe Labor Day 2008 could be the beginning of the recovery!

The one big difference between the last few years and today is one simple fact. Houses are selling! Record foreclosures, “short sales” galore. The banks are being stingy with the money, nobody will loan money to home buyers…………………………… yet houses are still selling.

Much of the sales activity is investor related. That should sound the alarm bells for America. TRUE INVESTORS ARE NOW BUYING! I remember in 2005, when the amateurs were overnight real estate investors, everyone followed the armature! Just like the “Day Traders” of the stock market a few years ago. Everyone was a player in the stock market. Then the bottom fell out. Who became wealthy? Those true investors who were there to pick up the pieces!

Who will become wealthy in 2009, 2010 and 2011? Those buying the deals today! Why not? You can buy at or below 10% less than today’s market value as added insulation to your investment! STILL, there is a great supply and demand differential. Inventory is still high. There is still time to right your bad investments from 2005 and 2006! Jump on the real estate train today and ride out what has become our national nightmare! Ten years from now, real estate values will be double what they are today!

If you are not getting the message, here it is again: BUYERS, THIS IS YOUR MARKET!

The Reality of Realty

So you want to list your house. Who do the consumers want to list with? Let me give you an example of average layman thinking: The house in this example is worth between $475,000 and $500,000. The consumer interviews three agents. One agent is a familiar face in the community they live, responsible for many, many sales in that community. The second agent is another experienced pro and the third is an inexperienced agent referred by a friend.

Agent one wants to list at $499,950, agent two wants to list at $489,950 and agent three wants to list at $600,000 and is offering a 2% discount on the broker fee. Since the seller owed over $500,000 on the mortgage, they decided to go with inexperience because the price was music to their ears! Forget the fact that the other two agents provided a detailed CMA (like an appraisal, only done by a real estate agent to determine value, using houses similar to the subject that are active for sale, pending escrow, that have recently sold and some similar to the subject that failed to sell…….usually because they were overpriced). Further, the other two agents have 50 years experience between them and have successfully sold over 3000 homes between them. The Seller went with PRICE over experience. How do you think this is going to turn out?

About 50% of consumers make this exact same mistake every day in America. Then after they are listed, they find it very hard to get in touch with their agent. This is sometimes the case because they are working their other job at Target or Wallmart and can’t work real estate while at the other job. When they do get in touch with them, they are asking for price reduction after price reduction. They certainly are not spending money marketing the home because they gave those marketing dollars away when they listed at a discount. Months pass, no offers, few showings. The listing expires.

Part II: Did they learn anything or will they repeat the same mistake again and again? Don’t think this applies to new or inexperienced agents only. Some new agents are able to successfully market homes when they are under the wing of a more experienced agent. It’s how most good agents get their start. It’s why some make it in this business, but the overwhelming majority of new agents fail and are out of the business within 12 months of starting. You see, it’s hard to make a living in real estate when you can’t make any money. Back to my point, some experienced agents play this game as well. When competing against another agent they know, they bump up the asking price or that CMA value. You see, they think (and they are correct) people like them better if they have the highest price. It works. Much of the time, they get the listing. They have their assistants call weekly (never them) and they start to work that price down! One of my competitors listed a home in Cheval. They overpriced it by almost $500,000. I think the original list price was $1,200,000. After about TWO years, the house was sold for $775,000. Did the market fall that far from 2005 to 2007? NO. The game was played, either by ignorance or on purpose, it was played. Had the home been listed at market in 2005 ($990,000) it would have sold in less than 30 days for full price. The seller carried the mortgage, the taxes, the insurance plus all the upkeep for almost two years and lost over $200,000 alone just in the sale. The agent still got paid. Further, they advertised that listing for two years and probably sold 3-4 other houses that were priced right in the process by working buyers who called their office on the overpriced listing……..extra money at their clients expense.

I still believe in being as honest as possible no matter how ugly the truth is. I still need to put my head on a pillow at night and sleep. It is what my God and savior Jesus Christ expects of me and what I expect of myself. All that this honesty has gotten me in this dismal market is a place as #1 in the entire world with ERA Franchise systems (Team Arcuri) as well as finishing 2007 as #4 in the world. I think God has kept is hand on my business because I have continued to be as honest as possible under impossible market conditions. The TRUTH is always the better route, even when you see others taking the other road. I refuse to go down that path and mislead the consumer for a quick buck.

I refuse to flip flop on the issues like Obama just for a vote. I only tell the truth. If it is not what the Seller or Buyer wants to hear, it is the same story.  Like Senator John McCain, I am the “Straight Talk Express” of real estate

That is The Reality of Realty!

As the real estate industry in Florida (and the country) is in the process of trying to find it’s way to their feet again, there is an issue that hinders property values in many communities. The HOA or Homeowners Associations that regulate the rules and regulations (and deed restrictions) of PUD’s (Planned Unit Developments, a.k.a.: subdivisions). These organizations are run by property owners in those communities. You know, the guys who send you all the hate mail that you have a spot on your driveway, or that your home needs to be painted, or your grass is too high and needs to be cut. In most cases, there is a Property Management firm that HOA dues are paid to. The problem with many, and in my almost 20 years experience in this business, MOST of the HOA’s is that they DO NOT operate as designed. You have people serving on those Associations who have regular jobs, usually not at the top of the food chain at their company or who have a spouse who they are afraid of at home, or they are frustrated by life. Who do they take it out on? YOU, the person they are supposed to be representing.

The delivery of the message is key. As in ANY REPUTABLE BUSINESS, the first message received by one person sets the tone for the exchange. In most cases, the HOA sends a very strong letter to the homeowner, who in most cases are not even aware there is an issue until they get the letter from the HOA. Instead of a friendly reminder, they immediately go on the “attack” and threaten litigation, liens and sometimes foreclosure! They have WAY too much power. They are unregulated, there is way too much EGO involved.

As in many communities, it’s all about who you know. I usually “farm” or market the community that I live in heavily. The members of the HOA are constantly getting my “Just Listed” and my “Just Sold” postcards. I know it must irritate many of them. But it always seems that top Realtors are targets of the HOA. The more outspoken you become of their negative tactics, the more “hate letters” you will receive.

My next door neighbor cuts his own grass and maintains his own yard. The is a M.D. so his time is limited. His yard shows it. The grass gets very high, the bugs eat sections of his yard, he never edges the common areas. He SHOULD be getting letters weekly. He does not. Has never received one as far as I know. I purchased one of the biggest eyesores in the community. I had the home professionally renovated and updated. My yard is cut by the finest landscape company in Tampa Bay (Rusty’s Lawn 813-404-1114). I try to make certain my home is better maintained than all my neighbors because of my “target” status. I still get letters more often than I can open my mailbox! It’s like an HOA member’s wife kicks his ass for not taking out the trash, he goes to the office and his boss kicks his ass for doing a poor job. He gets mad, comes home and wants to get the HOA to kick somebody’s ass in the community so they can feel better. Why else would they do the job (unpaid?). NOT because they care about the community or their neighbors, because if they did, they would use better bedside manor to deliver their message. They deliver the message with too much Mojo, Macho authority in my opinion.

The problem is, they create more problems than they solve. Potentials Buyers get wind of these cantankerous Associations and avoid these communities. They hear that a community dues check was lost, or the property owner forgot to pay that month for whatever reason. They get a foreclosure threat by the association’s attorney. Again, those attorneys’s LOVE those HOA’s because they get instructions to send the hate mail to property owners and THEY GET PAID! And guess who pays them? You guessed it, the property owners!

So who is a fault? Those HOA mamebers usually go up for re-election on a yearly basis. The problem is, the most capable, knowledgeable individuals available, don’t want the job (who wants the unpaid position). Nobody good wants the job! I for one would rather keep fielding the letters and washing the one inch speck of discoloration off my mailbox. Who gets burned the most for their immature actions? The homeowners in that community because their homes become more difficult to sell.

When I get a Buyer who calls my office and says “don’t show me any homes in subdivisions that have an HOA”, I completely understand. That needs to change. It seems like the IRS is teaching the class on bedside manor and the biggest client they have is your HOA!

A great story from the AP today. Please read below. After the article, I have my comments: __________________________________

One key divide is over limits on the mortgages FHA can insure and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy, which the Senate measure sets at $625,000. The House-passed bill set the caps at $725,000, which is preferable to lawmakers from the highest-cost housing markets, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. 

Also at issue is whether the new regulator and tightened rules for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should take effect immediately, as dictated by the Senate bill. The House-passed legislation delays them for six months, leaving it up to a new president to implement the changes. And the two sides are at odds over which tax breaks to include and whether to pair them with offsetting tax increases to prevent a rise in the deficit - something that conservative “Blue Dog” Democrats insist on. The Senate’s $14.5 billion package falls $2.4 billion short of being paid for, while the House’s $11 billion is fully covered. 

There is broad agreement on using the FHA to help struggling homeowners refinance into mortgages they can afford. The Bush administration has twice broadened the agency’s authority to do so under a program it calls FHASecure. Top housing officials were planning to discuss the expansion - as well as the fate of the housing legislation - on Tuesday.

 ___________________________________________________________________________________________

 As a real estate agent, I love the idea that Uncle Sam is getting involved. As an American, I not certain they should! About a year ago, we (Real Estate) were all alone in this mess! In 2008, Gas Prices have joined the loop (just filled up my Expedition at a cost of $98.00), skyrocketing property taxes got noticed and our great Governor, Charlie Crist has kicked the insurance industry right in the “mommy / daddy button” and it seems like the world is going to fall apart! NOT SO! Everything is not what is seems!

At our office, we have this big “Sale Pending” board that shows what deals are currently pending escrow. We use color to describe the deal. Bank foreclosures are green, short sales are blue and regular, arms length deals are black. since mid 2007, that board is 95% green and blue! However, in the past week, black has made a glorious return! The past 3 weeks we have been partying like its 1999 (or 2005) as MANY regular deals are starting to close. A CLEAR SIGN that the worst is behind us! If the government wants to get involved (article above) to speed the process, I say “run Uncle Sam, RUN!.”  We have hit bottom and we are turning the corner!  2009, here we come!

As a final note: As the NFL training camp is about to open for all 32 teams, I want to wish my client, Michael Pittman the best of luck playing for the Denver Bronco’s. As a Buccaneer, her was not appreciated enough and like Chris Simms (not in Tampa when the season starts), Michael will shine in Denver. It would be great to see him play in the Superbowl here in Tampa this February!

The millionaires are being made again. As the Florida real estate market decline stops to a grinding halt faster than the Tampa Bay Rays losing ways, those day traders of the dom com boom and those pre-construction “flippers” have given way to the real investors. Those who are buying now in a frenzy will be the true kings of real estate investing in the next few years!

Back in 2005, it seemed like anyone could make a quick buck in the fast appreciating real estate market! Who thought it would end? Although my clients made millions during the boom, I certainly had my share of short term losses with some of my clients. I gave some advise to valued clients to buy while markets were booming. Most of my investment clients were wanting to put minimum monies down ($5,000 was common), buy pre-construction, wait the 10-12 months for construction completion, and then sell at $80,000 to $100,000 profits per home without having to make many, if any payments on those SUB-PRIME LOANS! The good times rolled! It really was “easy money” if you got in at the right time. Words like “can’t miss” and “sure thing” flowed from the mouths of Realtors and lenders alike. I almost purchased three homes for my children because I was fearful they would never be able to afford to purchase a home of their own when the grew up! Visions of New York flashed through my head! Like some of my investors, the Arcuri family took their lumps when the bubble popped! But my confidence in a rebound remains very, very high!

POP the market went first quarter of 2006! Soon it will be the first quarter of 2009!

Those who liquidated and took the loss shortly after the bubble broke were the ones who took the minimal loss. Those who held on too long, have to wait awhile to bounce back. And bounce back we will. Despite the bitter taste, educated investors continue to invest. Those who don’t have the stones for real estate need to stick with their “real” jobs of wrestling or playing ball or working for “the man”. The ones who don’t want to be taking chairs to the head and flying around the world like a gypsy when they are in their 40’s will give real estate another look. True investors know that you win most of the time in real estate, but once in a while you lose! Over the life of your portfolio, you WIN BIG IN REAL ESTATE!

To those “bad deals” that the investor has not sold, the unintended landlord that is making up the shortage in the payment from the tenant, I say hold on! History has told us that TIME will turn a lame real estate investment into a goldmine. TIME. Since Tampa Bay was saturated with investors and much of the sales activity in 2004, 2005 and 2006 was investors speculating on fast returns, Tampa is poised for a quicker than normal bounce back as opposed to other areas of the country and even the state. Once that over-supply of homes equals out to the demand, Tampa will again lead the state back! Only Lakeland in my opinion will have a faster bounce than Tampa.

The good times will be back soon! Where will you be? You can look back in 5 years and say “Damn, I should have invested in 2008 when the market bottomed out” or you can say “I’m so thankful I purchased in that down market. My wife is so happy with her new Bentley”……… it’s your call. I can only lead the horses to the watering hole, you have to drink the Cool-Aid!

Where is the bottom? The real estate market is still in decline according to the most recent stats. When will we hit the bottom? The truth is nobody knows! The market can turn faster than Brittany Spears goes from drunk to sober, to good mom to bad mom! As long as lenders are tight on the money, the market will remain sluggish.

If you are in the realty business, you already noticed that property that falls within the FHA Gridlines are actually selling! WOW, it is rocket science after all! In 2005, we were calling for the Undertaker to take FHA and VA loans away! With all of the 100% financing available to anyone (my dead uncle actually got a 100% loan in 2005, two years after they buried him. So much for only needing a pulse in 2005 to get a sub-prime loan) who needed VA or FHA? Flash forward to 2008! FHA is making the strongest comeback since George Forman in the 1990’s!

Like an old rerun of Good Times, FHA loans are DYNO-MITE for real estate! Those government loans are saving the day. This should send out an obvious signal to Wallstreet as well. Buyers must have some skin in the game (down payment), make money available to loan (attention lenders) to buyers with decent credit, follow Uncle Sam’s lead (FHA) and start walking to the light at the end of the tunnel.

I believe that the Tampa Bay Ray’s can win the World Series this year, The Buccaneer’s can host a Superbowl here in Tampa and play in (and win) the big game and The Tampa Bay Lightning can reclaim The Stanley Cup with the help of another Vince and new ownership. AND, I believe the real estate machine that drives America will lead our economy BACK.

Who needs Obama or McCain? The Vince Arcuri plan will work! Now somebody put me in charge! Somebody just needs to pay attention, and I’m not talking about ESPN.

Gas Prices and Real Estate:The price per barrel of oil seem to have a price impact on everything from food to the cost of a new DVD. The one thing that is not impacting is the price of real estate! Too bad because this could be one of the few positive spotlights for Sellers in this slow moving economy! What is shocking to me, is why BUYERS are not leaping off their butts to get a piece of the action! I saw yesterday that prices in Tampa Bay have fallen another 20% since this same time last year. I was interviewed with FOX 13 NEWS and the reporter, Craig Patrick asked me off camera how long I thought this crisis would last and how much farther prices would drop.

First of all, you must keep in mind that 90% of the properties for sale are overpriced. 80% of the properties currently listed have NO CHANCE TO SELL in this market. If you were a smart buyer, you eliminate those 90% of the unrealistic Sellers and focus on the “actual” properties that are for sale. Most are priced below market value (which make them saleable) and the Seller will more than likely negotiate further! I have Buyers, SMART BUYERS, who are purchasing in this market. I have a Buyer closing Friday of this week on a home in the Estates of Cheval. The previous owner paid almost one million dollars for this home in 2006. My Buyer picks it up for less than half a million. What is the actual market value of that home? Did the market fall 50% since the home was purchased in 2006? The answer is NO! But the buyer recognized the home was going to sell under market value and he JUMPED! NOTE: You can’t steal in slow motion! To this Buyer, “WHAT IF” the market fell another 10% next year? He still is miles ahead of the game. That house, with a little elbow grease is worth $700,000 conservatively.

If you want to make money in real estate, do what the professionals do: They BUY when everyone else is SELLING and the SELL when others are BUYING. And remember the ABC of investing……Always Be Careful.

You can’t always believe the media. The media has Obama with a double digit lead over McCain. Do you believe it? Maybe Obama has a lead, but the media will exaggerate it. If they did not, there would be no story! There is still money to be made, deals to be purchased in Florida real estate. If your Realtor has not been selling real estate for more than five years, you may want to further evaluate their credentials. The last thing you want to do is have an Agent practice selling in this market with your checkbook! Smart investors look for experienced agents who are worth their weight in gold! The market can turn around faster than The Tampa Bay Ray’s. To learn more, go to www.vincearcuri.com

Where does all this “change” come from!  Look at the state of our country!  In 2005, the realty market was on fire, gas was $2.00 a gallon and nobody knew a politician named Obama unless you were from Illinois!

Fast forward to 2008, faster than Michelle Obama can do a “daps” with her husband Barack Hussain Obama, the world has changed dramatically! Gas prices are $4.00 a gallon, real estate is down 30% and Obama is the Democratic nominee!

WOW. The world changes pretty fast if you don’t pay attention! Seems like the Tampa Bay Buccaneer’s were just winning the Superbowl! Now, Jon Gruden is fighting for his job! After the 8-8 season on the horizon, he will probably be looking for a job in 2009 (if Joel Glasier ever wakes up). Chris Simms leads another team to the Superbowl and former “wonder boy” of the NFL, Gruden will claim that he discovered him! That Superbowl win in 2003 is getting OLD! The last time the Buc’s won a playoff game was The Superbowl!

Like I said, things change on a dime. Hopefully, in February, the Buc’s are playing in the Superbowl right here in Tampa, gas prices are back to $2.00 a gallon and real estate is cooking again!  The next few years will be very interesting. Real Estate, Politics, and the NFL! I’m ready for 2009!

I was thinking today about how fast real estate markets change. Just a few years ago, Realtors in Tampa Bay were freaked out over a new business model that was advertising 2% commissions. The spokes person used to say that “it did not take 5%, 6% or 7% to sell a home”. It only cost 2% he boasted.  (Oh by the way, they charged every junk fee you could imagine, you had to use THEIR Closing Agent and they overcharged every way they could!….. want to talk to an agent that worked there? HA! Want to get out of the agreement? FORGET IT!)  This model had more holes in it’s hull than the SS Titanic (maybe that is too much of a compliment, lets just say the SS Minnow). This was typical of discount franchises. The shocker here is that this guy had convinced some “players” in the market to back him (or “Out”back him - if you live in Tampa you got the pun). They must have spent millions on local media and ad blitz! Every time I drove by a billboard or turned on the radio or turned on the TV, here was this guy.   All he did was badmouth traditional Realtors and spend his father in laws money.  It was a great model, so they thought, but had he used those funds to open a traditional realty office, he would have made it! As the #1 ERA Agent in Florida last year, I don’t think ERA spent $1.00 in Tampa to promote our franchise. Had they spent the kind of money this company spent, they would have monopolized the Bay area market.

BOOM, on dime the market changed and this model sputtered to a halt.

I guess they found out that poor service, combined with alienating every real estate agent in Tampa, based with 2% commissions equal a financial disaster. When the father in law cut off the gravy train and went back to focus on steaks, son in law went…….. I don’t know! I have not heard a peep. Guess they changed the name of the company to escape the creditors!

Funny, when the market turned sour, this business model went from “The #1 Real Estate Office in Tampa Bay” in a hot market to “flash in the pan poster child” almost overnight! A discount broker seems like a great idea in a blistering market. When you are in a normal or slow market, those discount brokers sink like rocks. Why? It takes money to sell real estate in 2008 and lots of it! Virtual tours, Internet ads, color brochures, mail outs, not to mention gas prices at $4.00+ a gallon! The point is this: Selling real estate is for big boys and girls. If you have to bring your father in laws money into the fray, you are about to be hammered.

Had this lad been forced by his father in law to actually go sell real estate for a few years BEFORE they threw away a few million dollars, their family banker would have been more appreciative! The next time those guys want to stop flipping steaks on the barbie and venture into the real estate world, they should hire somebody with the ability to make a company succeed. Not crash and burn it! I guess it really does take more than 2% to sell a home! WORD!

 If it were up to the media, the last presidents would have been Walter Mondale, Al Gore, John Kerry and now Obama. They only got Bill Clinton in the middle somewhere (and I’m forgetting somebody, rightfully so). And now those same liberals are trying to say that Hilary Clinton is the Devil………unless she is the VP nominee of Obama and then she is a genius again. I guess they love Obama so much because they can all “CHANGE” on a moments notice.

No wonder America gets it right almost every time despite the constant brainwashing of the media and Hollywood. As if Bruce Sprigsteen can relate to America. Just because he sings songs about middle America does not translate into votes, only million dollar record deals. “The Boss” can’t fix his own toilet (where all his music should be by the way) but he sits in his glass house and is tossing stone after stone.

As far as I am concerned, John McCain wants to take government away. There is way too much involvement now. The economy is in shambles thanks to a Democrat led Congress and Senate. Where were we four years ago when the Republican’s ruled the Senate and the White House? We were clicking on twelve cylinders. The real estate market was on fire, the stocks were roaring and the economy was kicking ass! What did the media do? BRAINWASHED America into voting Democrat. Well, it’s almost four years later and now that the Democrats have 2/3 control (Republicans only have the White House) and the economy is in the toilet…….thank you Bruce Springsteen, Tom Hanks and all of the LIBERAL MEDIA! Now they want FULL CONTROL. They can take away our tax breaks that Bush gave us so we have even LESS money! Great way to fix the problem.

Fix it this way. Vote RED on November. Democrats, Republicans and the Liberal Media? Look at history and see when we were better off. Vote Republican across the board. That is the fastest way for real estate and our economy to rebound. McCain in 2008. I’m more afraid this time than in any other time in my life. In past elections, I was not afraid that our President would turn on the Country. Obama is a dangerous man who hates whites and he hates America. PROOF to me that he was a member of that church for 20 years and never rejected the message until now, when he want to be President.

Anyone who think any different has fallen to the puppet masters, the Liberal Media. The only news I can even watch is MSNBC. They only tell the truth!